国产av不卡一区二区_欧美xxxx做受欧美_成年人看的毛片_亚洲第一天堂在线观看_亚洲午夜精品久久久中文影院av_8x8ⅹ国产精品一区二区二区_久久精品国产sm调教网站演员_亚洲av综合色区无码一二三区_成人免费激情视频_国产九九九视频

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / Industries

Global grain woes grow, but impact on China may be limited

By Gao Ruidong and Liu Xingchen | China Daily | Updated: 2022-06-20 09:29
Share
Share - WeChat
A farmer harvests wheat in Nanyang city, China's Henan province, May 22, 2022. [Photo/Xinhua]

Since the beginning of the year, global grain prices have been at high levels, leading to a rise in the domestic grain CPI (consumer price index) of 2.7 percent year-on-year, a record not seen since 2016. It is a result not much beyond expectations after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, as the two counties are major suppliers of wheat and corn.

In 2021, Russia's wheat and corn exports accounted for 22 percent and 3 percent, respectively, of global total while Ukraine's stood at 11 percent and 17 percent. Based on this, we believe future changes of output and exports from the two countries will undoubtedly continue to weigh on the global grain market.

In terms of wheat, the conflict has affected spring planting in Ukraine. The country's 2022-23 wheat output is expected to fall to 21.5 million metric tons, down 11.5 million tons from 2021-22. Global output is expected to be 774.8 million tons for the 2022-23 period, down 4.5 million tons from 2021-22. By the end of 2022-23, there will be a 5 percent loss in global wheat stocks, which will then fall to 267 million tons, the lowest level in six years.

In terms of corn, global production is expected to fall from 1.22 billion tons in 2021-22 to 1.18 billion tons in 2022-23, a decrease of some 2.9 percent. This is mainly due to production declines in Ukraine and the United States. Inventories of corn are expected to fall 1.4 percent to 305.1 million tons by the end of 2022-23.

Worsened forecasts for wheat and corn have been well reflected by the market. From January to May, international spot prices for the two commodities once jumped more than 30 percent, and the absolute price level has exceeded the level seen in 2008, when an earlier food crisis emerged.

There are fears that worrying effects brought by global price surges may further drive the domestic CPI. Indeed, the rise of international food prices has affected domestic food prices. But how much of an impact will there be? To answer this, there are two factors to consider. One is the import reliance of China on certain products, and the other is the gap between domestic production and demand.

Based on this, we can divide the main food crops-rice, wheat, corn and soybeans-into three categories based on China's dependence and price transmission from global to domestic markets.

In simple terms, price transmission is a change in one price that causes a corresponding price change. Generally, it is measured in terms of transmission elasticity, defined as the percentage change in the price in one market given a 1 percent change in the price in another market.

First is soybeans. China relies heavily on soybean imports, and they normally constitute more than 80 percent of domestic soybean consumption. Soybean prices in China basically follow the fluctuations in international prices. Since 2021, price transmission from the global soybean market to the domestic soybean market is between 85 percent and 100 percent.

Second are corn and wheat. Since 2020, due to declines in planting acreage and an increase in demand for livestock feed, domestic imports of the two soft commodities have surged significantly. In 2020-21, imports of corn and wheat took up 10 percent and 7 percent, respectively, in terms of domestic consumption, while in 2019 the figures were just 3 percent and 4 percent. Import pressure pushed up domestic prices of the two crops. Since 2021, price transmission from the global corn and wheat markets to the domestic market has been between 10 percent and 30 percent.

Third is rice, a commodity for which China is virtually self-sufficient. Imports of rice only account for 3 percent of the nation's total demand, and are mainly used to meet tastes for exotic varieties. Therefore, domestic rice prices are relatively independent and mainly follow minimum purchase price factors. The price sees very little influence from the international market. From January to May, international rice prices have surged 19 percent, while domestic prices edged up only 3 percent.

In China, consumption of wheat and rice makes up the bulk of total edible grain consumption. Looking at China's grain consumption structure in 2021, the consumption ratio of edible wheat and rice is about 80 percent, which is significantly higher than that of corn and soybeans, which are 3 percent and 28 percent, respectively, over the same period. Therefore, from the perspective of the trend of the grain CPI, it mainly depends on the fluctuation of wheat and rice prices.

Historically, when rising food prices have clearly pushed up domestic inflation, rice and wheat prices have always seen sharp simultaneous jumps. The weight of food in the CPI basket is about 2 percent-not a very high proportion. So when food prices fluctuate sharply, the impact it has on inflation will be relatively low. Since 2000, the impact of food prices on the CPI once reached 1 percent in 2004-a time when prices of rice and wheat both rose sharply, ranging from 40 percent to 50 percent-and the food CPI rose by 34 percent.

At present, domestic rice prices are at historically low levels, as adjusted for incomes and inflation, and act as a significant stabilizer to dampen the impact of rising food prices on inflation. On the one hand, being Asia the main rice cultivation area, rice prices are not directly affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture in May, global rice production in 2022-23 will increase and global inventories will reach new highs. On the other hand, the amount of government-held stocks is also at low levels, indicating that the actual supply of domestic rice is relatively sufficient.

For wheat, first there is always a certain loss in the transmission of international wheat price surges to the domestic market. And second, this year, there is an expansion of wheat production, narrowing the gap between domestic production and demand, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is also higher than in the previous year, which also helps stabilize domestic wheat prices. Therefore, assuming that under extreme circumstances, if international wheat prices rise again by 100 percent in the near future, which may trigger a surge in domestic flour prices by 10-20 percent, due to stable domestic rice prices, the grain CPI will rise by 5-10 percent, pulling up the CPI by 0.1-0.2 percentage point, a relatively manageable outcome.

For corn, its consumption by humans is relatively low-less than 5 percent of the total-and that for livestock feeding purposes is as high as 60-70 percent. Therefore, the impact of global corn price surges is mainly reflected by the price of meat products, such as pork, and that on the CPI is indirect and minor.

From January to May, global corn prices rose 24 percent while domestic prices increased 6 percent. Although the domestic corn inventory-consumption ratio has remained at a low level since 2019, due to continuous reductions of live pig production capacity since the second half of last year, there has been a decrease in feed demand. Thus, domestic corn prices did not increase significantly in the first half.

However, with the expected further increase in pig prices in the third quarter, profits among breeders may gradually return to the black, and corresponding demand in the sector will improve accordingly, driving the increase in domestic demand for corn. Providing that there is still a gap between supply and demand of global corn, it's necessary to pay close attention to upward pressure on domestic corn prices going forward.

The writers are Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomist at Everbright Securities, and Liu Xingchen, an analyst with Everbright Securities.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1994 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
CLOSE
 
97精品国产综合久久久动漫日韩| 国产精品夜夜爽| 综合久久精品| 国内精品久久久久久99蜜桃| 九色在线观看视频| 最新av番号| 黄色片av在线| baoyu777.永久免费视频| 美国av免费观看| 极品色影院av| 天天摸天天做天天爽| h网站免费看| 狠狠操狠狠色| wwwxx免费| jizz.www| 综合欧美国产视频二区| 亚洲美女视频网| 亚洲精品乱码久久久久久按摩观| 日韩欧美国产综合一区 | 亚洲一二三四在线观看| 一区二区三区高清在线| 亚洲自拍另类综合| 性久久久久久久久| 狠狠操狠狠色综合网| 黄色漫画在线免费看| 综合激情丁香| caoporn97免费视频公开| 男男互摸gay网站| 成人黄色电影在线| 在线播放国产区| 一个人免费观看视频www在线播放 一个人免费视频www在线观看 | 久久久久久亚洲综合影院红桃| 日本欧美大码aⅴ在线播放| 久久深夜福利| 日本色综合中文字幕| 日本不卡在线视频| 精品亚洲成a人| 国产成都精品91一区二区三| 成人禁用看黄a在线| 99r国产精品| 国产视频一区二区在线| 国产精品不卡一区| 精品国产乱码久久久久久虫虫漫画 | 亚洲人metart人体| 黄色成人精品网站| 在线视频福利| 国内精品久久久久久影院老狼| 女人公敌韩国| 青丝免费观看高清影视| 国产精品视频免费| 视频一区国产视频| 久久狠狠亚洲综合| 成人午夜短视频| 久久久精品人体av艺术| 中文字幕制服丝袜一区二区三区 | 麻豆一二三区精品蜜桃| 国产在线播放精品| 99久久九九| 91精彩在线视频| 午夜视频在线免费| 成人精品一区二区三区校园激情| 免费观看在线黄色网| av中文在线资源库| 精品176极品一区| 欧美深夜视频| 欧美激情91| 日本成人在线视频网站| 成人一区二区三区视频在线观看| 国产亚洲综合av| 亚洲一二三区视频在线观看| 在线一区二区观看| 加勒比久久综合| 不卡一区2区| 国产一在线精品一区在线观看| 日韩和的一区二区| 成人短视频下载| 亚洲欧美综合色| 一本久久综合亚洲鲁鲁五月天 | 欧美巨大黑人极品精男| 濑亚美莉大战黑人中文字幕| 小黄文在线观看| julia中文字幕久久亚洲蜜臀| 最新真实国产在线视频| 色是在线视频| 国产精品超碰| 欧美不卡一区| 韩国v欧美v亚洲v日本v| 久久精品日韩一区二区三区| 精品国产999| 日韩一区二区电影在线| 色播久久人人爽人人爽人人片视av| 欧美亚洲国产精品| 德国性xxxx| 青青色在线视频| 国模精品视频| 超碰一区二区三区| 国产综合自拍| 国产高清视频一区| 亚洲靠逼com| 7777精品伊人久久久大香线蕉超级流畅 | eeuss影院www在线播放| 91久久国产综合久久91猫猫| 久久夜色精品国产噜噜av小说| 国产一区日韩欧美| 成人深夜在线观看| 欧美丝袜第三区| 色婷婷激情久久| 亚洲电影在线看| 久国内精品在线| 国产亚洲网站| 噜噜噜躁狠狠躁狠狠精品视频 | aaa一级毛片| 天天操天天射天天色| 日韩国产福利| 在线天堂资源www在线污| 牛牛视频精品一区二区不卡| 亚洲色图另类图片| 免费精品国产自产拍在| fc2ppv完全颜出在线播放| av大片在线看| 日本免费一区二区三区等视频| 亚洲一区二区偷拍精品| 国产精品传媒在线| 欧美三级中文字| 中文字幕亚洲情99在线| 久久精品视频在线观看榴莲视频| xxxx性bbbb欧美野外| 热re99久久国产精品| 黄色成人av| 成人女同在线观看| 色婷婷久久久| 日本中文字幕一区二区有限公司| 国产精品人人做人人爽人人添| 欧美精品久久一区二区三区| 九九热最新视频//这里只有精品| 全彩无遮拦全彩口工漫画全彩| 国产小视频免费在线网址| 91福利精品在线观看| 91精品国产麻豆国产在线观看| 国产福利一区二区三区视频| 午夜精品福利一区二区三区蜜桃| 亚洲美女精品成人在线视频| 欧美色婷婷天堂网站| 夜鲁很鲁在线视频| 久久免费资源| 亚洲视频狠狠| 久久影院视频免费| 777欧美精品| 最新欧美人z0oozo0| 91国语精品自产拍| 99热这里都是精品| 欧美日韩国产高清一区二区| 欧美激情第1页| yy4480电影网| f2c人成在线观看免费视频| 国产一区二区三区天码| 国产麻豆精品theporn| 欧美日韩一区二区三区在线免费观看| 在线电影av不卡网址| 小小的日本在线观看免费色网| 五月婷婷在线观看| 日韩aaa久久蜜桃av| 激情深爱一区二区| 欧美日韩亚洲国产一区| 久久亚洲精品视频| 黄网视频在线观看| 大胆人体一区| 欧美区亚洲区| 亚洲国产电影在线观看| 亚洲精品国精品久久99热 | 阿v视频在线观看| 久久人人99| 26uuu色噜噜精品一区二区| 91精品久久久久久久91蜜桃| 狠狠色综合久久婷婷| 韩国免费在线视频| 牛牛精品成人免费视频| 国产麻豆视频一区| 欧美日韩视频不卡| 亚欧成人精品| 久久久精品欧美丰满| 精品免费一区二区三区| 国产美女自拍| 成人高清免费在线| 欧美大片aaaa| 青草伊人久久| 久久午夜视频| 欧美1区二区| 成人黄色理论片| 免费av成人在线| 欧洲亚洲国产日韩| 男人午夜视频| 91露出在线| 日韩一级毛片| 国产精品毛片无遮挡高清| 国产视频精品久久久| 18毛片免费看| 香蕉成人影院| 日韩电影在线观看电影| 久久久女人电视剧免费播放下载| 久久成人精品电影| 日本成年免费网站| 91麻豆精品一二三区在线| 美国av一区二区| 欧美在线综合视频| 四虎影院成人在线观看| 国产秀色在线www免费观看| 天天综合一区| 一区在线播放视频| 久久躁狠狠躁夜夜爽| 最新中文字幕在线视频| 女一区二区三区| 91美女片黄在线观看| 亚洲精品资源美女情侣酒店| 成人毛片免费在线观看| 高清一区二区中文字幕| 国产东北露脸精品视频| 亚洲第一精品自拍| 天天综合天天操| 国产精品视频一区视频二区| 欧美与亚洲与日本直播| jizzjizz亚洲| 91精品国产91久久久久久密臀 | 欧美亚一区二区| 欧美高清xxxx性| av在线不卡免费| 国产精品久久久久久久免费软件 | 欧美日韩精品免费| 2022国产麻豆剧果冻传媒剧情| 天天综合av| 另类中文字幕网| 精品欧美一区二区久久| 97超超碰碰| 亚洲高清999| 91麻豆精东视频| 日韩一区二区在线视频| 精品视频二区| 中文字幕一区二区三区乱码图片| 夜夜嗨av一区二区三区网页| 91精品国产一区| gogo在线观看| 亚洲免费综合| 欧美一区二区三区在线电影| www.夜色| swag国产精品一区二区| 国产日韩欧美综合在线| 欧美精品亚州精品| 免费高清完整在线观看| 国产老女人av| 国产啊啊啊视频在线观看| 老司机免费视频久久| 欧美一区二区美女| 先锋影音资源999| 日韩美脚连裤袜丝袜在线| 国产精品久久久久久久岛一牛影视 | 992tv在线观看在线播放| 国产成人高清精品免费5388| 欧美经典一区二区| 97精品久久久| 黄色18在线观看| 国产精品自在欧美一区| 国产一区二区三区四区福利| 九色视频在线观看免费播放| 欧美色综合网| 欧美日韩国产大片| 日色在线视频| 大奶在线精品| 中文字幕一区二区三区四区| 97免费在线视频| 日韩欧美精品一区二区三区| 国产一区二区在线视频| 成人精品国产免费网站| 久久精品美女视频网站| 麻豆传媒免费在线观看| 麻豆成人在线| 亚洲成人三级在线| 在线激情av| 欧美日韩天堂| 日韩激情图片| 国产91精品久久久久久久网曝门| 日韩毛片在线观看| 蜜桃免费在线| 最新亚洲视频| 日韩一级大片在线观看| 五月天丁香婷| 欧美69视频| 6080日韩午夜伦伦午夜伦| 超碰超碰97| 日韩专区精品| 91黄色在线观看| 麻豆av资源| 色无极亚洲影院| 欧美日韩一区二区欧美激情| 四虎国产精品成人免费4hu| 欧美美女视频| 欧美日韩综合一区| 美女的尿口免费视频| 亚洲一区 二区 三区| 欧美一区二区三区系列电影| 美国成人av| 亚洲国产美女| 日韩精品在线视频美女| 98在线视频| 久久精品国产亚洲一区二区三区| 色小说视频一区| 欧美xxxx免费虐| 国产成人亚洲精品狼色在线 | 亚洲跨种族黑人xxx| 欧美日韩xx| 国产精一区二区三区| 欧美国产视频日韩| 天天综合网站| 中文子幕无线码一区tr| zzzwww在线看片免费| 经典一区二区三区| 欧美成人在线免费视频| 正在播放日韩精品| 欧美激情综合在线| 精品一区二区三区在线成人| 国产精品毛片久久久| 精品欧美一区二区三区| 男裸体无遮挡网站| 欧美日韩成人| 亚洲精品一区av在线播放| 国产精品va在线观看视色| 丁香六月久久综合狠狠色| 2019亚洲日韩新视频| 中文天堂网在线www| 麻豆视频免费在线观看| 粉嫩一区二区三区性色av| 午夜精品蜜臀一区二区三区免费| 成人午夜在线| 一区二区三区产品免费精品久久75| 黑人巨大狂躁日本妞在线观看| 日本一区二区免费高清| 欧美一区二区三区视频| 国产一区精品| 国产一区二区福利视频| 国内精品久久久久久久| 99精品女人在线观看免费视频| 亚洲午夜在线视频| 色偷偷福利视频| 亚洲另类视频| 最近2019中文字幕在线高清 | 欧美在线看片a免费观看| 米奇在线777| 亚洲专区欧美专区| 久久精品视频一| 欧美一级网址| 欧美性猛交xxxx乱大交| 传媒av在线| 麻豆一区二区三区| 97超级碰在线看视频免费在线看 | 国产精品久久久免费 | 久久97精品久久久久久久不卡| 成人激情视屏| 香蕉乱码成人久久天堂爱免费| 一级网站免费观看| 一级片在线视频| 三级久久三级久久久| 色在人av网站天堂精品| 国产精品一区免费在线| 一本大道久久a久久综合| 一级毛片在线看| 国产精品一二二区| 狂野欧美激情性xxxx| 日韩在线二区| 亚洲美女福利视频网站| 我爱我色成人网| 亚洲成人av一区| 一级一片免费视频| 国产一区二区美女诱惑| 欧美另类极品videosbest视频| jiujiure精品视频播放| 亚洲国产成人爱av在线播放| aa国产成人| 亚洲综合免费观看高清在线观看| 中文字幕第5页| 国产一区二区0| 欧美videos另类齐全| 日韩精品一区二区三区免费观影| 日韩第一页在线| 国产精品伦理| 欧美午夜视频一区二区| 成人综合影院| h网站在线观看| 亚洲精品成人| 日韩性生活视频| 欧美视频二区欧美影视| 欧美日韩国产在线播放网站| 黄色成年人视频在线观看| 国产精品乱码一区二区三区软件| 亚洲jjzzjjzz在线观看| 免费在线欧美视频| 欧美另类极品videosbest视频| 久久久久久久久丰满| 久久天天躁狠狠躁夜夜躁| www.国产精品一区| 亚洲国产精品99| 国产精品毛片久久久久久久久久99999999|