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France heads for political earthquake in EU vote PARIS - France headed toward a
looming electoral earthquake on Friday as polls showed voters were set to reject
the European Union's constitution in a referendum and open the door to a period
of political uncertainty. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero was due in Lille and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who secured parliament's approval for the charter on Friday, was expected in Toulouse for last-minute rallies supporting the treaty. Treaty supporters say rejection would kill the constitution and weaken France within Europe while opponents say a "No" vote would force the Union to redraft the treaty to boost protection for social services and workers threatened by globalization. The charter's backers still hoped for a ballot box surprise, but the steady rise of the "No" vote in recent opinion polls to 55 percent seemed to make Sunday's result a foregone conclusion. "If the 'No' wins, there will be not only a European crisis ... but also an enormous political upheaval in France," said Christophe Barbier, deputy editor of L'Express magazine. "All the leaders of the large parties will be discredited and we will enter a period of uncertainty which will be twilight time for Jacques Chirac and a jungle for all the parties trying to survive," he told Europe 1 radio. First estimates of the vote will come after polling stations close in big cities at 10 p.m. (2000 GMT). The constitution is intended to make the EU work more smoothly following its enlargement last year and requires the backing of all 25 member states to go into force. Approval in the upper house of parliament made Germany the ninth country to ratify the constitution. The Netherlands votes in a referendum next Wednesday, with polls pointing to a "No." NEW IMPETUS SOUNDS OLD Warnings of political uncertainty if the constitution is voted down seem only to have encouraged the "No" camp to thumb its nose at the leaders urging them to vote for it, political scientist Philippe Mechet told LCI television. "If you say there will be chaos tomorrow, they say fine, let's cause some chaos and see how they get out of it," he said. Pollster Jerome Jaffre said voters' "disappointment and frustration will grow larger until 2007" -- the date of the next presidential and parliamentary elections. Chirac's remark that he would seek " a new impetus" if the constitution were rejected -- a hint that he would fire Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin -- met with derision. "We've been hearing that from Chirac for the past 10 years," Laurent Fabius, the leading Socialist opposing the treaty, told France 3 television. "There was something pathetic yesterday about seeing Jacques Chirac using his last bullet to try to save himself from what he has caused -- a disaster," the left-wing daily Liberation wrote. Dashing Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin and Nicolas Sarkozy, ambitious head of Chirac's conservative Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party, are the frontrunners to replace Raffarin if he is sacked. With leaders of both the majority UMP and the opposition Socialists supporting the constitution, a defeat would boost far-right leaders Philippe de Villiers and Jean-Marie Le Pen the most, an Ifop opinion poll said. Fabius might also look like a winner on Monday morning, but a "No" victory would probably throw his Socialist Party into a stormy power struggle and he might not be able to transform that advantage into a solid run for the presidency in 2007. |
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