當地時間12月4日，2018年奧斯卡頒獎禮進入90天倒計時。官方公布了一支宣傳視頻，整個影片以混剪為主，包括《神奇女俠》、《變形金剛5》、《速度與激情8》、《銀河護衛隊2》、《敦刻爾克》、《美國制造》、《金剛狼3》、《蜘蛛俠：英雄歸來》等今年上映電影的鏡頭。

值得一提的是，奧斯卡并沒有避諱上一屆最佳影片頒錯獎的“烏龍”，而是大大方方地將這一情節剪輯在了短片之中，令人再一次回味了這一“歷史性的時刻”。

本屆奧斯卡頒獎典禮將于明年3月4日舉行，依然由吉米?坎摩爾擔任主持。雖然目前許多獎項的提名名單還沒有公布，但隨著頒獎禮的臨近，各大媒體已經開始對本屆奧斯卡的大贏家做出自己的預測和判斷。

《敦刻爾克》、《華盛頓郵報》、《請以你的名字呼喚我》、《逃出絕命鎮》等熱門沖獎作品究竟誰的勝算更大，一起來看看BBC的分析吧。

Dunkirk
《敦刻爾克》

Christopher Nolan's World War II feature is probably just about the front runner for best film.
克里斯托弗?諾蘭的這部二戰題材電影可能就是最佳影片的領跑者。

For: Well-received by both audiences and critics, it tells a crucial slice of history.
支持：《敦刻爾克》講述了一場重要的歷史事件，深受觀眾和影評人喜愛。

Against: Although it picked up a best editing prize from the LA Film Critics Association, it was ignored by their New York counterparts. Could its momentum be waning?
反對：盡管該片被洛杉磯影評人協會評為最佳剪輯獎，但卻沒有受到紐約影評人的重視。它的勢頭會逐漸減弱嗎？

Best chances: Best film and best director. Surprisingly, Nolan has never received a directing nomination from the Academy.
沖擊獎項：最佳電影獎和最佳導演獎，讓人意外的是，諾蘭從未獲得過奧斯卡獎提名。

The Post
《華盛頓郵報》

Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep in front of the camera, with Steven Spielberg directing a historic battle over press freedom - there's much for awards voters to admire.
湯姆?漢克斯和梅麗爾?斯特里普出演，史蒂文?斯皮爾伯格執導，這樣一個為新聞自由而戰的歷史故事，有很多讓評委刮目相看的地方。

For: The National Board of Review gave it their best film, actor and actress awards.
支持：美國國家評論協會將最佳電影、最佳男主角和最佳女主角獎頒給了這部電影。

Against: There was no love from the New York nor LA critics.
反對：紐約時和洛杉磯影評人協會都對該片無感。

Best chances: It's always hard to bet against Streep getting a best actress nomination, and Hanks is overdue for an acting nomination after missing out in recent years.
沖擊獎項：很難相信斯特里普得不到最佳女主角提名，而漢克斯在銷聲匿跡幾年后，早該獲得一項表演類提名了。

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
《三塊廣告牌》

Frances McDormand giving an outstanding central performance as a grieving mother in this darkly comic story.
弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德在這個黑色喜劇故事中扮演一位悲傷的母親，展現了出色的核心表演。

For: It picked up the audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival, often a key awards indicator.
支持：該片在多倫多國際電影節上獲得人民選擇獎，這個獎項通常是一個重要的風向標。

Against: To some extent it's divided American audiences, perhaps damaging its hopes of winning best film.
反對：在某種程度上，《三塊廣告牌》分裂了美國觀眾，它贏得最佳影片的希望或許會因此破滅。

Best chances: Best film, and best original screenplay recognition looks certain, and Frances McDormand is currently the favorite for the best actress Oscar.
沖擊獎項：最佳影片、最佳原創劇本獎項的提名應該是肯定的，而弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德現在是奧斯卡最佳女主角獎的最熱人選。

Call Me By Your Name
《請以你的名字呼喚我》

A tender love story between a teenager and an academic, set in Italy.
《請以你的名字呼喚我》背景設定在意大利，講述了的一個少年和一個學者之間的柔情之戀。

For: The Los Angeles Critics Association gave it their top prize.
支持：洛杉磯影評人協會將其評為最佳影片。

Against: Strong in many categories, but without quite managing to be a front runner in any. Perhaps Timothee Chalamet's performance is its best chance of awards success.
反對：《請以你的名字呼喚我》在很多方面的表現都很不錯，但卻沒有哪一方面是最突出的。也許“甜茶”蒂莫西?克萊門特的表演是該片沖奧的最大可能。

Best chances: A best film nomination looks certain. Darkest Hour's Gary Oldman is the favorite for best actor, but if anyone can beat him it's probably Chalamet.
沖擊獎項：最佳電影提名應該可以肯定。參演《至暗時刻》的加里?奧德曼是最佳男主角的最熱人選，如果說有誰能擊敗他的話，那可能就是克萊門特了。

The Shape of Water
《水形物語》

An otherworldly romance between a mysterious aquatic creature and a mute girl, played by Sally Hawkins.
影片講述了一個神秘的水生生物和莎莉?霍金斯扮演的啞女之間超凡脫俗的愛情故事。

For: Since it premiered at the Venice Film Festival, it's being wowing audiences.
支持：該片在威尼斯電影節首映后，獲得觀眾喝彩。

Against: It might be that bit too far from the mainstream to make a huge awards impact.
反對：影片可能太過非主流，不具有獲得大獎的影響力。

Best chances: Sally Hawkins is only a fraction behind current best actress favorite Frances McDormand.
沖擊獎項：在最佳女主角的最熱人選弗蘭西斯?麥克多蒙德面前，莎莉?霍金斯的獲獎幾率很小。

Get Out
《逃出絕命鎮》

Chris Washington, played by London-born Daniel Kaluuya, is drawn into the sinister underbelly of a small American community.
英國演員丹尼爾?卡盧亞扮演的克里斯?華盛頓卷入到一個美國小鎮的邪惡陰謀中。

For: A huge box office hit that could benefit from a slowly-changing Oscar voting demographic.
支持：影片可能會憑借出色的票房表現從緩慢變革的奧斯卡投票人群上獲益。

Against: Opening so early in the year outside of awards season could hinder its chances.
反對：在頒獎季前一年早早上映可能不利于其沖獎。

Best chance: If there are nine or 10 best picture nominees, it could grab a spot. Jordan Peele's screenplay looks certain to be recognized.
沖擊獎項：如果這屆奧斯卡最佳影片的提名數有9或10部電影的話，那么《逃出絕命鎮》能占一個。喬登?皮爾的劇本應該一定會被提名。

Darkest Hour
《至暗時刻》

Gary Oldman on blistering form as Winston Churchill.
加里?奧德曼飾演了憤怒的溫斯頓?丘吉爾。

For: Oldman's seemingly effortless embodiment of the wartime leader has won almost universal
支持：奧德曼塑造的戰時領袖丘吉爾收獲一致好評，而這對他似乎是手到擒來的。

Against: It's not yet managing to win top honors from critics' groups.
反對：《至暗時刻》目前還沒有被一所影評機構評為最佳電影。

Best chance: Oldman has been the favorite for best actor since the film's Telluride premiere.
沖擊獎項：自從在特萊瑞德電影節首映以來，奧德曼一直就是最佳男主角獎項的寵兒。

The Florida Project
《佛羅里達樂園》

A child's eye view of life in a Florida motel community.
從一個孩子的視角，講述佛羅里達州一家汽車旅館社區的生活。

For: Strong reviews, and praise for the performances - particularly from the children at the centre of the story, and Willem Dafoe, who plays the manager of the motel where they live.
支持：影片演技大獲好評，尤其是故事的主人公——那些孩子們，以及旅館經理的扮演者威廉?達福。

Against: Could the film be seen as a film of great performances, rather than a truly great piece of cinema?
反對：可以把這部電影當作一部演技在線的影片，而不是一部真正偉大的作品嗎？

Best chances: Dafoe is probably the current front runner for best supporting actor.
預測：達福目前可能是最佳男配角的領跑者。

英文來源：BBC
翻譯&編輯：董靜
審校：yaning