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美國IBM全球商業服務部門一位產品專家表示，女性鞋跟高低的流行趨勢可以反應經濟的走勢，鞋跟越高就表示經濟不景氣。研究分析指出，在經濟不景氣的時期，高跟鞋的高度通常會增加或居高不下，女性消費者透過這些看來華麗的時尚鞋款來逃避現實、創造出繁華的幻影。該機構發布的報告舉例稱，20世紀20年代經濟大蕭條期間，高跟鞋和松糕鞋取代低跟公主鞋在年輕女性中大為流行；而在之后20世紀70年代的石油危機中，松糕鞋的風潮又卷土重來，讓之前大為盛行的低跟涼鞋黯然失色。IBM利用特殊軟件對社交媒體中有關鞋品流行趨勢的文章進行分析后得出上述結論，并預測當前流行的超高跟鞋即將“回歸地面”，這可能意味著經濟前景的好轉，或消費者已經做好了長期節衣縮食的準備。

?Usually, in an economic downturn, heels go up and stay up — as consumers turn to a more flamboyant fashions as a means of fantasy and escape.

What do shoes say about the economy? Perhaps a lot.

In the 1920s, low-heeled flapper shoes gave way to high-heel pumps and platforms during the Great Depression.

In the 1970s oil crisis, platforms came back en vogue as the low-heeled sandals of the late 1960s were cast aside.

In the 1990s, the low, thick heels of the "grunge" period were replaced by "Sex and the City"-inspired stilettos just as the dot-com bubble burst.

"Usually, in an economic downturn, heels go up and stay up — as consumers turn to a more flamboyant fashions as a means of fantasy and escape," says Trevor Davis, a consumer product expert with 'International Business Machines' Global Business Services unit, in a press release.

IBM conducted a study of social media posts and is predicting that women's heel heights, which are currently in nosebleed territory, are poised to come back down to Earth.

Perhaps the shift signals a change in the economic outlook, or maybe it's a sign of resignation.

"This time, something different is happening — perhaps a mood of long-term austerity is evolving among consumers sparking a desire to reduce ostentation in everyday settings," Davis says.

IBM came to its conclusion by using special software to sort through social media posts about footwear trends. Several separate sorts were made, first broadly, and then narrowing down to bloggers who are passionate about footwear and have large followings. The result is one you won't find in the shoe store. Right now, stores are still carrying sky-high heels, but the shift to flatter shoes is on the way.

In fact, discussions about increasing heel height peaked toward the end of 2009, and then declined after that. Between 2008 and 2009, the most influential bloggers wrote consistently about heels that ranged in height from five to eight inches, but by 2011 they were writing about the return of the kitten heel and the perfect flat from designers Jimmy Choo and Christian Louboutin.

This is not to say that the sky-high heels are gone. Instead, Davis says, these soaring heels are discussed as glamwear and not for the office or a shopping trip.

According to IBM, this study also underscores that manufacturers and retailers cannot think that they are the ones in control of where the trends head. Bloggers have become influential tastemakers in their own right.

相關閱讀

2011鞋品新寵－flatforms

意官員稱股市動蕩與毒品有關

(Agencies)

Vocabulary:

platforms: 松糕鞋

kitten heel: 中跟鞋

（中國日報網英語點津 Helen ）