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專家：地球變暖已停止或將進入小冰河期
Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about

[ 2012-02-06 09:01]

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A painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age.

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The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.

We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ – which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th Century.

Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still.

According to a paper issued last week by the Met Office, there is a 92 percent chance that both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the following decades will be as weak as, or weaker than, the ‘Dalton minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. In this period, named after the meteorologist John Dalton, average temperatures in parts of Europe fell by 2C.

However, it is also possible that the new solar energy slump could be as deep as the ‘Maunder minimum’ (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between 1645 and 1715 in the coldest part of the ‘Little Ice Age’ when, as well as the Thames frost fairs, the canals of Holland froze solid.

(Read by Lee Hannon. Lee Hannon is a journalist at the China Daily Website.)

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(Agencies)

新的溫度數據顯示，地球在過去的15年間并無變暖。這一數據發布后，人為引起全球變暖的“共識”受到了不利挑戰。

數據顯示，人類甚至有可能面臨小冰河期，堪與17世紀泰晤士河上舉行霜降會的70年降溫相提并論。

上周，英國氣象局和東安格利亞大學氣候研究中心悄無聲息地發布了這些基于3萬多個監測站的數據，確認世界溫度上升趨勢止于1997年。

昨日主流氣候學家對《星期日郵報》稱，太陽在整個二十世紀都發出異乎尋常的高能量，現在正走向太陽輻射輸出的最低值，人們將面臨冷夏、嚴冬以及糧食種植季節縮短的威脅。

太陽輻射輸出完成了十一年的周期，高峰期出現大量的太陽黑子。

我們現在正處于科學家所謂的第24個太陽活動周期的高峰期，這就是為什么上周的太陽風暴導致比平常更偏南的地方出現北極光。但是太陽黑子的數量少于二十世紀的太陽活動周期峰值的一半。

美國宇航局和亞利桑那大學的專家分析，從太陽表面以下12萬英里的磁場測量推斷，第25個太陽活動周期的高峰期將在2022年，太陽輻射將大大削弱。

據英國氣象局上周發布的報告，第25個太陽活動周期以及隨后數十年間的太陽輻射，有92%的可能性達到1790年至1830年間的“道爾頓最低點”，甚至更弱。在這段以氣象學家約翰?道爾頓命名的時期里，歐洲部分地區的平均溫度下降了2攝氏度。

然而，這次新的太陽能量暴跌也可能達到“蒙德最低點”（以天文學家愛德華?蒙德命名）的幅度，即1645年到1715年間“小冰河期”最冷的時候，那時泰晤士河、荷蘭運河都冰封凍結。