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支持率觸底奧巴馬略輸布什
Five years in, Obama and Bush poll numbers nearly identical

[ 2013-11-07 16:41]

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For all their differences, Bush and Obama have nearly identical poll numbers at this point in their second terms …

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When President Obama first ran for the White House in 2008, it was with the promise to turn the page on the presidency of George W. Bush. But for all their political differences, it turns out the American public pretty much view the two men in the same light, according to new polling data.

In the first week of November in the fifth year of their presidencies, Obama and Bush have nearly identical approval numbers, according to the latest Gallup polling.

In fact, Bush comes out one point ahead, 40 percent to 30 percent, respectively.

The Gallup daily tracking poll for November 5th 2013 puts Obama’s approval at 39 percent, with 53 percent disapproving of his job performance.

By comparison, polling for the first week of November in 2005 had Bush’s approval at 40 percent, with 55 percent disapproving of his job performance.

And the negative comparison to Bush’s numbers is potentially worse for Obama than just a tough headline.

As former Bush adviser Matthew Dowd said on ABC’s “This Week,” the real damage lies in the fact that historically low approval numbers often constrain a president’s ability to rebound with the public.

“I think what you have right now is you talked about the floor of the president's approval numbers, which are almost exactly where President Bush's were. Every time you establish a new floor, you establish a new ceiling,” Dowd said.

Noting that Bush’s approval free fall “wasn’t all about Katrina,” Dowd said Obama faces a similar assault from multiple fronts.

"The president's problems have been brewing for a while,” Dowd said. “What the Republican circus did was cover up a lot of the president's problems. That circus that went on with the Republicans for a while. And then once that was over, it revealed a deeper problem with the presidency."

Of course, the most recent numbers don't guarantee that Obama's second term will end up mirroring Bush's, whose approval continued to fall to a low of 25 percent on three separate occasions before he left office. Still, they do place Obama in an interesting historical context when compared to how some other presidents have fared in the fifth year of their presidencies.

Pulling back the curtain further to look at Obama’s approval rating during the 19th quarter of his presidency, Obama places 5th out of the last 8 presidents who served for the same length of time.

His quarterly Gallup approval rating of 44.5 percent places him ahead of Bush (43.9), Lyndon Johnson (41.8%) and Richard Nixon (31.8%). But Obama falls behind Bill Clinton (58.8%), Ronald Reagan (61.3%) Dwight Eisenhower (59.5%) and even Harry Truman (45%).

What might be most striking to Obama supporters is to compare the various challenges faced by Bush and Obama at this point in their respective presidencies. In the fall of 2005, Bush was reeling from fallout of Hurricane Katrina and arguably the low-point of the Iraq War. And while he had successfully won re-election against John Kerry, his approval rating had dropped 13 points from 53 percent since the November 2004 election.

In contrast, Obama has dealt with the continuing drag of a sluggish economy, partisan divisions, which led to a government shutdown, criticism over National Security Administration spying accusations and the recent fallout over problems associated with the launch of the Affordable Care Act.

And as a result of those challenges, Obama has experienced a nearly identical polling drop as Bush, falling a statistically identical 13 points from his approval ratings of 52 percent on election day in November, 2012 .

Of course, nothing is set in stone. Unforeseen events could restore Obama’s approval ratings: The economy could improve, the 2014 midterm elections could boost Obama’s standing and early setbacks of the Affordable Care Act could recede.

But if recent history is any indicator, Obama is likely to find himself in some unexpected and unwanted company – that of an unpopular president he was elected to replace.

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2008年，奧巴馬剛就任美國總統時承諾要拋開過去、開啟新篇章。然而，一份最新民調顯示，奧巴馬任期第五年的民眾支持率已跌至39%，而小布什同一時期的支持率為40%。

據美國媒體11月5日報道，權威調查機構蓋洛普公司當天發布的的每日追蹤調查顯示，美國總統奧巴馬的民眾支持率僅為39%，有53%的民眾不滿意其工作表現。相比之下，2005年11月第一周，時任總統布什的支持率竟然還略高于奧巴馬，達到40%，不過有55%的民眾對布什的工作表現感到不滿。

分析人士指出，對于奧巴馬而言，這一比較結果不僅僅是一個令人難堪的新聞標題，還意味著更加糟糕的潛在負面影響。

馬修·多德曾任布什的顧問，他認為上述事實帶來的真正危害在于，歷史性的低民眾支持率通常會限制總統重新獲得民眾擁護的能力。“現在大家討論的是（奧巴馬）總統的支持率觸底了，類似的事情在布什身上也發生過。而我想說的是，每當新低出現時，這個新低將會是下一階段的新高。”

多德還強調，布什的支持率暴跌“不全是因為應對卡特里娜颶風不利”，而奧巴馬現在在許多領域面臨類似的“打擊”，“奧巴馬的很多問題是由共和黨引發的，如果這些問題解決了，在剩余的總統任期內，他還將面臨更深層次的困境”。

目前，奧巴馬面臨諸多麻煩，包括經濟持續低迷、民主共和兩黨分歧難以調和、國安局監控丑聞以及命運多舛的醫改法案等，由此，其支持率由2012年11月成功連任時的52%降到如今的39%，整整下跌了13個百分點。

2008年小布什離任時，他的民眾支持率僅有25%。美國媒體稱，僅通過民調數據，還無法斷定奧巴馬第二任期結束時將落得跟小布什一樣的凄慘下場。但是，奧巴馬的前景也不容樂觀。

“沒有什么是一成不變的，未來奧巴馬的支持率可能會因某些無法預料的事件恢復至高位。但更多跡象顯示，奧巴馬很有可能成為布什的同伴，”有美國媒體評論稱，“要知道當初他可是被人民選出來代替這位不受歡迎的總統的。”