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奧巴馬稱美國取代中國成為首選投資地遭質疑
Obama’s claim US tops China as No 1 investment destination questioned

[ 2014-01-30 10:13]

來源：中國日報網

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US President Barack Obama proclaimed America had usurped China as the world's No 1 investment destination, a bold statement that left some economists scratching their heads.

The White House cited an AT Kearney survey as the basis for Obama's remark in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, noting the US topped the global consulting firm's list for expected foreign direct investment.

But the US ranks lower in other prominent surveys. Forbes' annual report on the best country to do business in put Ireland at the top, with the US at No 14, according to Politico's website. It also noted that the Milken Institute - which measures countries on 67 variables, including economic fundamentals and regulations - put the United States at No 22, behind Hong Kong at No 1.

Obama kicked off his speech with a list of his administration's economic achievements.

"Here are the results of your efforts: the lowest unemployment rate in over five years. A rebounding housing market. A manufacturing sector that's adding jobs for the first time since the 1990s. More oil produced at home than we buy from the rest of the world - the first time that's happened in nearly 20 years...," Obama said. "And for the first time in over a decade, business leaders around the world have declared that China is no longer the world's number one place to invest; America is."

The statement pacified some Americans' concerns in the past couple of years that "China is eating America's lunch", but it triggered a fierce debate.

RBS economist Louis Kuijs said despite the fact that the United States is emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis and is on track for an economic upturn this year, hurdles remain to making it the world's top investment destination.

"The US has made progress in economic recovery, which makes itself a more attractive place for investments," Kuijs said. "Many federal governments are quite keen on attracting investments and manufacturing as energy prices are lower."

However, lower energy costs, thanks to abundant supply of shale gas, are not the sole factor. There are others such as wages and availability of supply chain services, he said.

He added that the mainland's sophisticated and advanced logistics and supply chain network makes it more favourable in manufacturing activities.

"The supply networks were lost along with the demise of many manufacturing activities in the US many years ago," Kuijs said. "It is not easy to bring more jobs back to the US."

The US is more suitable for developing some petrochemical-related industries, he said.

US-based financial services firm Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Marc Chandler saw the US as the best investment location by some measures such as low unit labour costs, cheap energy, higher legal transparency and signs of manufacturing activities returning to the country.

"Many worried about a bubbling debt problem, quicker deterioration in demography, poor stock market and unstable money market in China," he said.

However, Wilson Tong, a professor with Hong Kong Polytechnic University's School of Accounting and Finance, has faith in China's attractiveness on the world's economic stage. He says because the US is unwinding its quantitative easing measures, capital is naturally flowing back to the country.

美國總統奧巴馬聲稱美國已經取代中國成為世界首選投資目的地，這一大膽言論讓一些經濟學家莫名其妙。

奧巴馬在周二的國情咨文演講中提到，美國已成為全球咨詢公司預期的外國直接投資的首選目的地，白宮還援引AT Kearney的調查作為這一言論的根據。

不過在其他著名的調查中，美國的排名可沒這么高。福布斯最佳經商國家年度報告中，愛爾蘭居首，而美國排在第14位。此外，根據67個變量對國家做出考量的梅肯研究院把美國排在第22位，而排名第一的是香港。

奧巴馬在演講中列出了一大串他執政下取得的經濟成就：

“這是你們努力的結果：五年多來最低的失業率。房屋市場回暖。制造行業自20世紀90年代以來首次增加了職位。我們國內的產油量超過了從世界其他國家進口的油量——這是近20年來的頭一次。而且，全世界商業領袖十多年來首次宣稱中國不再是世界首選投資地，美國才是。”

這一言論平息了一些美國人在過去幾年對“中國正在吃掉美國人的午餐”的擔憂，但這也引發了一場激烈的討論。

蘇格蘭皇家銀行經濟學家路易斯·庫伊基斯說，盡管美國正在從2008年全球經濟危機中復蘇，今年也步上了經濟好轉的軌道，但是美國要成為世界首選投資目的地，還有不少障礙。

庫伊基斯說：“美國在經濟復蘇上取得了進展，這讓它作為投資地變得更有吸引力。許多聯邦政府對于吸引投資和制造商都很積極，因為能源價格降低了?！?/p>

但是，較低的能源價格（這要感謝頁巖氣的充足供應）并不是唯一的因素，他說，還有其他因素，比如工資，還有獲得供應鏈服務的難易。

他補充說，中國大陸高度發達的物流體系和供應鏈網絡讓其更有利于制造業活動的開展。

庫伊基斯說：“在許多年前，隨著美國許多制造業活動的終止，供應網絡也隨之喪失。想把更多工作崗位帶回到美國并不容易?！?/p>

他說，美國更適合發展一些和石油化學產品相關的產業。

總部在美國的金融服務公司布朗兄弟哈里曼銀行的策略分析師馬克·錢德勒把美國視為最佳投資地，他列出的利好因素有較低的單位勞動力成本、清潔能源、更高的法律透明度，以及制造活動回歸本國的跡象。

他說：“許多人擔憂中國正在醞釀的債務問題、人口的迅速老化、不良的股票市場和不穩定的金融市場。”

但是，香港理工大學會計金融分院的教授威爾森·唐對中國在世界經濟舞臺上的吸引力很有信心。他說，因為美國正逐步實施量化寬松措施，資金自然就會回流。

（來源：South China Morning Post 翻譯：丹妮）

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