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日本女性能拯救安倍經濟學嗎？
Can Japanese women save Abenomics?

[ 2014-09-22 09:48]

來源：中國日報網

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日本女性能拯救安倍經濟學嗎？

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe included five women in his second Cabinet nine days before the World Assembly for Women convened in Tokyo on Friday.

This is because Abe is looking to Japanese women to help him execute his strategy to revitalize the economy.

Governing a country with a shrinking and rapidly aging population, Abe is counting on Japan's "hidden asset", millions of highly educated women who are not working.

In Japan the negative impact of aging on growth is said to be larger than in any other advanced economy. Its decline in labor is judged to subtract about 0.25 percentage points from potential growth each year.

An easy way to help slow this trend would be to increase the participation in the economy of women.

Kathy Matsui, chief Japan strategist at Goldman Sachs, said Japan could boost its GDP by almost 13 percent if it could narrow the gap between the number of men and women in the workplace, which would mean 7 million more workers in the labor pool.

Also, the World Economic Forum's research found that Japanese corporations with higher performance consistently have greater female participation in senior management.

The ambitious Abe has set numerical targets for his "womenomics" initiatives after his ineffective bids in other fields. He aims to raise the proportion of mothers who return to work after the birth of their first child to 55 percent and have women occupy 30 percent of leadership positions by the year 2020. As of March 2015, the Japanese government will require listed companies to disclose the number of women in executive positions in their financial reports.

At present only 38 percent of Japanese mothers return to work after giving birth to their first child. And women account for only 2.9 percent of manager-level and higher positions in Japanese companies employing 5,000 or more people.

Official figures released on Sunday show that the employment rate of women aged between 25 and 44 rose to 74.2 percent at the end of July, the highest since the Japanese government began compiling such data in 1968. But unless the workplace is more women-friendly, Abe's "womenomics" won't have the desired effect.

It is still difficult for Japanese women to balance raising children and working full time. And the current system discourages women from entering career-stream positions.

There is a severe shortage of day-care provision, which makes it hard for mothers to return to work. While Japan's workplace culture rewards long hours more than results. Goldman Sachs report found that Japanese men spend an average of 59 minutes a day on housework and child care - the shortest amount of time in the developed world. And the current tax system keeps women in the home, as it effectively punishes households with two working adults - a family can currently only deduct a second income if it remains under about 1 million yen ($10,000) a year - a hurdle for spouses who wish to work more.

However, even if Abe can increase the proportion of women in employment, some economists doubt it will be enough to stimulate the Japanese economy.

Royal Bank of Scotland Securities economists calculated that even if the percentage of the working-age women who work climbs up to 73.5 percent by 2030, Japan's potential growth rate would only rise by 0.14 percentage points. And population declines would nullify that tiny increment.

But Japan can't afford to leave its large number of women underutilized.

As Abe's tenure is finite, how far his "womenomics" initiatives will go is questionable. It is uncertain whether his successors will follow his strategy to boost economic growth through reforms and policies to encourage Japanese women to work and lead.

查看譯文

3號，日本首相安倍晉三（Shinzo Abe）剛剛改組的內閣中女閣僚人數達到5人。此時，距將在東京召開的全球女性領袖國際論壇（女性版達沃斯論壇）（World Assembly for Women）還有9天。

這是因為安倍晉三期待國內女性可以幫他實行戰略，振興經濟。

日本人口萎縮，老化迅速，安倍晉三指望日本的“隱蔽資產”（數百萬受過良好教育但未進入工作崗位的婦女）可以幫上忙。

據稱，日本人口老齡化對高級經濟形式中經濟增長的負面影響最大。而且若女性積極參與經濟生活，將減緩人口老齡化趨勢。

高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）首席日本分析師松井凱西（Kathy Matsui）分析，日本若可縮小職場男女人數之間的差距，就可以提振其國內生產總值近13%，這將意味著勞動力資源將新增700萬工人。

此外，世界經濟論壇（World Economic Forum）研究發現，在日本高效能企業中，管理高層女性人數較多。

安倍晉三雄心勃勃，在其他領域努力失敗后，開始為他的“女性經濟”舉措設定量化目標。生完第一個孩子后，部分女性會返回工作崗位，他計劃將這部分女性比例提高到55%，2020年之前，將領導職位婦女比例提高到30%。截至2015年3月，日本政府將要求上市公司披露其財務報告中擔任行政職務的婦女人數。

目前，只有38%的女性在第一個孩子出生后繼續工作。在雇用5000及以上員工的日本公司中，女性只占經理級及以上職位的2.9%。

14號，官方數據表明，7月底，25至44歲婦女的就業率升至74.2 %，創下日本政府自1968年編制此類數據以來最高紀錄。但是，若工作場所不利于婦女，安倍晉三的“女性經濟學”將無法產生預期效果。

日本女性仍難以平衡育兒和從事全職工作，現行制度仍阻礙著婦女進入職業生涯崗位。

而且日本日托服務不發達，女性難以返回工作崗位。同時，日本職業文化更重視工作長度而不是報酬。高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）報告發現，日本男人每天平均花59分鐘做家務和照顧孩子——在發達國家中時間最短。而且現行稅收制度規定，只有年收入100萬日元以下(約合6.2萬元）的家庭才可以有第二份收入，否則將受到懲罰，以此防止夫妻兩人同時工作，但婦女卻因此只能待在家中。

然而，即使安倍晉三可以增加婦女在就業中的比例，一些經濟學家仍認為此舉尚不足以刺激日本經濟。

據蘇格蘭皇家銀行（Royal Bank of Scotland）證券經濟學家推算，即便2030年時符合工作年齡的婦女工作比例上升至73.5%，日本潛在經濟增長率將僅上升0.14個百分點。而人口減少會抵消那部分微小的增量。

但日本不得不嘗試利用數量龐大的婦女群體。

首相任期有限，安倍倡議“女性經濟學”，究竟可以走多遠，這點值得懷疑。安倍通過改革和相關政策鼓勵婦性投入工作和領導崗位，以此刺激經濟增長，但目前還不確定下一任是否會延續他的策略。

（譯者 house黃奕編輯丹妮）

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