GULF RIVALS

Though allies in other respects, the Gulf monarchies of Qatar and Saudi Arabia have ended up backing rival forces in some Arab states where power has changed hands since 2011. For example, Qatar backed Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia the military that toppled the Islamist president last year.

In Syria, with the country at the heart of the region fragmenting into competing spheres of influence, Qatar carved an influential role by being quick to help the rebels and, later, by helping set up the Coalition a year ago with the aim of creating a credible alternative to Assad.

Last year, however, Qatar found itself under pressure from its much larger neighbour and from the United States over the way the war was going, and notably over the rising influence on the frontlines of Islamists hostile to the West and to its allies in the Middle East - like the Saudi royal house.

An expansion of the Coalition to 120 seats diluted Qatari control and handed leadership to the Saudi-backed Jarba. On the ground, however, Qatar is still a force, through groups like al-Tawhid, part of a new Islamic Front that controls large areas and coordinates with the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front.

"There are military groups in the opposition that are more influenced by Qatar than Saudi Arabia. But within the Coalition Saudi Arabia is stronger," said Abdelrahman al-Haj, a senior official in the Syrian National Council. The SNC is a component of the Coalition and opposes taking part in next week's talks.

A Gulf source with knowledge of Qatari policy said the new emir, in power since June, wanted a lower profile than his father who had strongly backed the Arab revolts. The new emir was also more open to Western requests to stop supporting militants, though Qatar still believed that arming rebels was needed to force Assad to compromise, however, the source said.

Diplomats involved in negotiations with Doha say Qatar still appears lukewarm toward Geneva-2. Some note that its ally in Syria, the Islamic Front, issued a statement supporting those members who had walked out of the Coalition.

Personal differences are also playing a role in the wrangling over whether to attend the meetings at Montreux.

People who know both men said that Mustafa al-Sabbagh, Qatar's point man on the Coalition, and Riad Hijab, who ran against Jarba for the presidency, could give their blessing to participation at Geneva-2 - if they and their allies secure a suitable presence in the delegation to the talks.

One senior member of the Syrian opposition familiar with the factional in-fighting said Qatar may not be willing to risk the Saudi and Western backlash that could follow a failure of the Coalition to send a cohesive delegation to the meetings.

"Qatar has carved itself a powerful niche by supporting the Islamic Front and using it as a pressure tool on the coalition," he said. "But at the end of the day Qatar will not defy Saudi Arabia and the United States.

"Its people in the Coalition need its financial and political support and so will do what Qatar asks."

However, Ahmed Kamel, a pro-opposition Syrian political commentator, said Qatar might fail to persuade allies on the Coalition to negotiate with Assad's team: "Part of the crisis is the standoff between Saudi Arabia and Qatar," Kamel said.

"But there is a genuine problem that faces even Jarba - because the Coalition is being asked to go to a peace conference without any conditions, without guarantees and without an agenda."

Western diplomats, however, are pressing hard for the Coalition to attend, stressing the lack of alternatives to the main international initiative to end three years of fighting that has killed over 100,000 people:

One said: "No one wants to think of the alternative if the Coalition fails again to agree."