A dangerous new chapter

By Zhang Yuan

What had been a largely restrained, low-intensity confrontation between Israel and Iran has escalated into a direct military confrontation with significant casualties on both sides. But the fallout of the conflict will not be limited to the two countries — neighboring countries could be caught in the crossfire, with the constant fear of radiation leaks from Iranian or Israeli nuclear facilities.

The conflict is far more than a dispute over Teheran's nuclear ambitions. It is the culmination of deep-seated political hostilities, hardened by years of animosity and shaped by the Middle East policy of successive US administrations, which have consistently favored Israel.

While the Iranian nuclear issue is often framed as the main cause of regional instability, it is better understood as a symptom of broader geopolitical frictions. For years, global powers and international organizations have been trying to curb Iran's nuclear weapons development program while allowing the country to generate nuclear energy for peaceful civilian use. Iran had been reiterating that it would not initiate a war unless its nuclear facilities are attacked. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, driven by his hard-line stance, vowed to prevent Iran from not only developing nuclear weapons but also advancing its ballistic missile program, and launched the attacks on Iran.

In reality, Israel's military escalation is less about eliminating immediate threats and more about strategic timing. The prospect of direct US-Iran talks — originally set to resume in Oman on June 15 — runs counter to Netanyahu's objectives. For Israel's leadership, a rapprochement between Washington and Teheran would undermine its leverage and regional narrative. By provoking a broader conflict with Iran, Israel may be seeking to re-anchor its strategic indispensability to the US and derail any momentum toward diplomatic normalization.

Under the second term of US President Donald Trump, US foreign policy is likely to double down on so-called "cognitive warfare": a strategy of media spectacles, contradictory messages, and narrative manipulation designed to control perception at low cost. Despite this, the bedrock of the US-Israel alliance will remain firm, impervious to leadership changes in Washington.

Iran may ultimately seek de-escalation if offered a viable diplomatic off-ramp. However, peace in the region cannot hinge solely on strategic calculations. It demands a comprehensive political resolution: a peaceful and verifiable solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, and renewed commitment to implementing a two-state solution to the Palestinian question.

War causes indiscriminate suffering. Its victims are not defined by religion or ethnicity — Jewish, Christian, Muslim, Persian, Arab or Palestinian. All lives matter. The time has come to break the cycle of violence and pursue a future grounded in diplomacy, peaceful coexistence, and respect for human dignity.

Zhang Yuan, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University. The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.